Potential Outcomes

Forecasted Emissions with Portfolio (2028) and Visionary Solutions (2050). Historical emissions starting in 2004 compared with forecasted emissions beginning in 2017 as 12 visionary solutions are implemented. These solutions include plans such as the SEM: Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) Portfolio, Energy Conscious Campus, Building Standards (2025 IECC), Energy Conscious Campus, Indirect (10-year) PPA, Onsite (10-year) PPA Solar PV Rooftop Generation, Transportation Demand Management (TDM), Fleet Efficiency (fuel switch), Operation Waste Collection Efficiency, air travel carbon offset program, onsite power plant electricity production, biogas fuel alternative, geothermal exchange, and offsets.. All solutions result in a forecasted nearly linear decrease in emissions from roughly 320,000 MTCO2e of GHG emissions in 2017 to zero, with all solutions combined, by 2050.
CAIP Portfolio MTCO2e reduction impact. (Source: Fovea)

Investment in the CAIP Portfolio will keep UIC on track to meet its GHG emissions reduction goal of 50% by 2028 (as shown in the associated graph). Furthering reductions beyond this 10-year time frame will become increasingly complex, and must be met with a robust commitment to achieving the UIC Climate Commitments. The CAIP will serve as the foundation for UIC to reach the goal of becomming a Carbon Neutral Campus, Zero Waste Campus, Net Zero Water Campus, and Biodiverse Campus.

The overarching goal of this investment in sustainability at UIC is to advance the frontier of knowledge, attitudes toward and practice of sustainability among all campus members through operations, education, research, and leadership. These activities reflect current best evidence for strategies and innovation to sustain the environment, economic productivity, infrastructure quality, energy accessibility and social systems to enable intergenerational well-being.

FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS: CAPEX & OPEX

CAPEX & OPEX graphed from 2005 to 2050. The line representing the cumulative capital budget holds steady at $0 from 2005 to 2015, then sharply increase to $100 by 2025, and then to over $150 by 2050. The line representing the annual operating budget holds steady at $0 from 2005 to 2015, then slightly declines to -$47 by 2050.
Cumulative CAPEX relative to BAU Reference case. (Source: Fovea)

Comparing the proposed changes in this CAIP to our “business-as-usual” operations comparison is critical to better predict implications on incremental cumulative CAPEX, as well as UIC’s operating budget (OPEX; including annual changes in purchased fuels, utilities, and other operating and maintenance expenses). This is modeled is the associated graph.

FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS: CAIP vs. BAU

Forecasted Energy Spending. Headlines above the graph: $741 Million forecasted energy spending through 2050 (BAU), $234 Million avoided energy spending with the UIC Climate Action Implementation Plan, 20% less exposure to price uncertainty. Next, are 2 floating graphs comparing 'Business As Usual' vs 'Climate Action Implementation Plan' spending, and showing that with the BAU case, stationary fuels could cost up to $988 million, carbon costs are $980 million, and purchased electricity also a few million. However, with the CAIP scenario, stationary fuels would cost no more than $718 million, carbon costs no more than $600 million, and no purchased electricity costs. The final floating bar graph show the difference between the BAU and CAIP showing a savings of $234 million in stationary fuel prices, $332 million in carbon costs, and a few million in purchased electricity.
CAIP Portfolio impact through in comparison to BAU Reference Case. (Source: Fovea)

Prioritized Portfolio Solutions are modeled in unison as a refined CAIP Portfolio that can be examined as a whole, in comparison to the BAU Reference Case as shown in the associated graphic. This comparison estimates that if UIC invests roughly $9.8 million per year (into the CAIP Portfolio) through 2028, Utilities would achieve an approximate $204 million savings in Energy Purchases (purchased energy and fuel) over the 10-year time frame of the CAIP (2018-2028); a Total Cash Flow (savings) of $107 million for UIC by 2028. Furthermore, this investment would reduce UIC GHG emissions by an average of 15,900 MTCO2e per year (a total of 159,000 MTCO2e by 2028).